这可是根据本人与信用卡公司斗争的实战经验总结出来的，与大家分享。
如果你不小心晚付或者少付了信用卡，就会发现下个月有 late fee, finance charge 之类的几十块，很不爽。这个时候你跟信用卡公司argue多半没有什么效果。你可以这么干，先把信用卡balance付清，停用这个卡几天，相信大家都有不少别的卡。等确认信用卡balance是零，再打电话过去。这个时候大家都心知肚明了，不退钱就把卡关掉。我是每次都把钱这样要回来了。如果还是不退钱，这样的烂卡还要它作甚？关了罢
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Monday, March 19, 2007
投资油田
我几年前曾在加州Bakersfirld附近买了一块人迹罕至,鸟不生蛋,但有矿产权的土地.后来有石油商的代理人找我签约租赁石油勘探开采权.在与他们打交道的过程中,我也学了一点这方面的知识.
首先说明其它州的情况与加州可能不同,我不了解.
在加州,我们平时说的和做的房地产买卖都是指地表权(Surface right)的交易.在同一块土地上还有其他不动产的所有权并不一定随Surface right的转移而转移.这些权利包括:矿产权(Mineral Right)和伐木权(Timber Right).这些权利与地表权是可以分离的.也就是说同一块土地上的这些权利可能属于不同的主人.
矿产权的交易通常需要专门从事矿产权交易的Realtor来做代理.这需要不同的License.在加州做普通房地产的Realtor据说有50万以上. 但能做矿产权的交易的Realtor没有几个,而且几乎都在Bakersfield附近(那里是加州石油重镇).近几年石油,天然气价格高涨,这方面的交易也变得活跃起来.
在一个鸟不生蛋的地方,一块土地的矿产权的价值可能大大高于地表权的价值.在山林地区,伐木权的价值也很可能大大高于地表权的价值.
说到回抱,就象买LOTTO.那里有没有油,值不值得开采,没有人知道.如果早知道,也就不便宜了.
油商愿不愿意在你的地上开采也要看油商的意愿.
我的情况是,油商在我的地上钻了一口井,每天出十几桶油,我抽头1/6.按现在的油价,扣除运输费,检验费等,我每天可得约$100.相对我当初不到2万块的买进价,我是中了LOTTO.但我相信大部分做这方面投资的都会没有什么回报.
我是7,8年前买的.当时油价很低,高开采成本地区,油商不愿意开采,矿产权也就不值钱.后来油价涨的厉害,矿产权的价格也是飞涨
首先说明其它州的情况与加州可能不同,我不了解.
在加州,我们平时说的和做的房地产买卖都是指地表权(Surface right)的交易.在同一块土地上还有其他不动产的所有权并不一定随Surface right的转移而转移.这些权利包括:矿产权(Mineral Right)和伐木权(Timber Right).这些权利与地表权是可以分离的.也就是说同一块土地上的这些权利可能属于不同的主人.
矿产权的交易通常需要专门从事矿产权交易的Realtor来做代理.这需要不同的License.在加州做普通房地产的Realtor据说有50万以上. 但能做矿产权的交易的Realtor没有几个,而且几乎都在Bakersfield附近(那里是加州石油重镇).近几年石油,天然气价格高涨,这方面的交易也变得活跃起来.
在一个鸟不生蛋的地方,一块土地的矿产权的价值可能大大高于地表权的价值.在山林地区,伐木权的价值也很可能大大高于地表权的价值.
说到回抱,就象买LOTTO.那里有没有油,值不值得开采,没有人知道.如果早知道,也就不便宜了.
油商愿不愿意在你的地上开采也要看油商的意愿.
我的情况是,油商在我的地上钻了一口井,每天出十几桶油,我抽头1/6.按现在的油价,扣除运输费,检验费等,我每天可得约$100.相对我当初不到2万块的买进价,我是中了LOTTO.但我相信大部分做这方面投资的都会没有什么回报.
我是7,8年前买的.当时油价很低,高开采成本地区,油商不愿意开采,矿产权也就不值钱.后来油价涨的厉害,矿产权的价格也是飞涨
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Why Your Home Is Not the Investment You Think It Is
Too many people rely on their home as their primary savings strategy. That's a mistake.
Planning your retirement? Don't bet the house on it.
Your home means a lot of things to you, most of them good. Your home gives comfort and protection to you and your family, and it could well embody all your material hopes and dreams.
But houses have become much more than just places to live. Your home is probably your biggest asset, and the price you could ask for it today is almost certainly much higher than what you paid for it back whenever.
As a result, houses have become substitute credit cards, as profligate owners borrow their equity to finance everything from cars to vacations. Among thriftier owners, the equity they have built up in the family home has become a vital part of retirement planning -- a "fourth leg" of the now-unstable "company pension/personal savings/Social Security" stool that was long the model for a financially secure old age.
More from The Wall Street Journal Online:
• Buy a House Now, or Wait For Prices to Fall Some More?
• Mortgage Refinancing Gets Tougher
• Debating Standards for Mortgage Lenders
Unfortunately for both groups, however, houses are not very good investments. For the grasshoppers, there's nothing quite as stupid as paying off your 2002 trip to Orlando in 2032, when you finally settle up your refinanced "cash out" 30-year mortgage. And for the ants, economic studies have demonstrated over and over that houses (1) cost more than most people make when they sell and (2) rarely match the long-term returns of stocks or other investments.
And that's doubly true today, with much of the U.S. well into a real-estate recession. It's unlikely that homeowners in once-booming areas will see a return of skyrocketing prices anytime soon.
"Real-estate investments suffer serious and sometimes prolonged downturns," writes economist W. Van Harlow in a new study of home equity and retirement from the Fidelity Research Institute in Boston. "A real-estate 'bust' could be quite damaging to an investor nearing retirement who relied too heavily on home equity."
It may be late for a lot of homeowners to read this, but here it goes anyway: It's risky and bad planning to have too much of your net worth in your principal residence. No prudent stock-market player would put 60% or 70% of a portfolio in just one stock, but millions will hold that much or more of their total net worth in just one house.
Food for thought:
• If you bought a house in Los Angeles in 1990, just as the real-estate market turned downward, you would have had to wait a decade for your home's value to return to what you paid.
• If you bought in Rochester, N.Y., in 1980, you would have seen only a mediocre 4% annual growth for the next 25 years.
• If you bought in Dallas in 1986, as the oil boom went bust, your home wouldn't have appreciated at all before 1998.
So with all that in mind, here's a question-and-answer rundown of some financial issues of home owning.
Q: My home is my largest asset. Why shouldn't I rely on it to provide my nest egg?
A: Because a house can be an inefficient means of investing, and it costs far more to buy and operate than you think. Homeowners can easily end up paying more to live in their houses than the supposed "profit" they make when they sell them.
When most homeowners figure their returns, they don't do much more than subtract the price they paid from the price they received. Then they come up with a really big return because they paid only a 10% or 20% down payment. So they figure they made a huge "profit."
But they didn't. That's because the costs of owning a home -- buying it with a long-term mortgage and then paying taxes on it, insuring it, repairing it, renovating it -- sap most of what most homeowners think they make in price appreciation.
Houses are nice financially because there are not many other things you buy that actually go up in value, and not many things can put a six-figure check in your pocket when you sell them. But don't delude yourself: You've already spent most of that check, and you are likely to spend the rest in just a few days when you buy a new home.
Think of your sale proceeds another way: not as a true profit, but as a huge rebate. Some of the thousands of dollars that you paid into the house over the years are being returned to you -- sometimes with a bonus, often without.
Q: But it's certainly better to buy a house than to pay rent.
A: That depends on when you buy, and how long you own. Buy at the wrong time -- like during the kind of buying frenzy that much of the country has just experienced -- and you could well end up wishing you had rented instead.
Boom market or bust, home buying has so many extra costs -- from upfront "points" paid to a lender to title insurance and appraisal fees -- that over the first five to seven years, a renter who invests the equivalent of a down payment in stocks could easily do better overall than a house buyer. Compounding that problem: Most homeowners move within seven years.
As the ownership timeline stretches out to 15, 20 or 30 years, however, the buyer will almost certainly do better than the renter, especially given the tax benefits of paying mortgage interest over traditional rent and the big rebate when the owner finally sells.
But the typical buy vs. rent argument clouds the more important point: A house is an inefficient way of building wealth.
costs_buying_home.gif
Q: But I have to live somewhere! And I have to pay something for a place to live. Certainly it's better to pay "deductible" mortgage interest than rent.
A: Buying a house with a long-term mortgage is just another form of renting.
Mortgage interest is rent that you pay to your lender for the use of its money rather than to a landlord for the use of his house. Yes, the government picks up a portion of that with the tax deduction, but most of your monthly payment neither builds equity nor is deductible. It just goes down the same black hole that sucks up any other renter's money. And it takes 20 years before a typical borrower pays more principal each month than interest.
"I have to pay something" is a rationale that home buyers use for going deeply in debt and paying tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest to buy a house that, they mistakenly believe, will make a big profit for them down the line.
Q: So how much does a house really cost?
A: You can easily end up spending three times the purchase price of a house. Today's buyer of a typical $300,000 single-family home who takes out a 30-year loan will end up paying the price of the house again just in interest. Add 30 years of property taxes, homeowner's insurance, regular maintenance and a couple of big-ticket repairs or improvements, and the total cost of buying the home could easily top out at well over $1 million.
Q: Yes, but the house will be worth much, much more.
A: Maybe, maybe not. Whether you come out ahead depends on where and when you buy. Even cash buyers might be surprised to see that they can't be assured of making a profit.
"The Costs of Home Ownership" table is a simplified rundown on a typical single-family home -- a house that was bought for $50,000 in 1977 -- based on national appreciation rates as reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Included are modest estimates of other home-owning costs (not adjusted for inflation). To keep things simple, there are no transaction costs, no additional borrowing to finance improvements and no refinancing costs, all of which would drive the expenses even higher. It's not a pretty picture.
costs_home_ownership.gif
Q: Those numbers don't seem realistic for where I live. You can't buy a house here for that kind of money.
A: To be sure, not everyone did so badly as the national average. OFHEO's Home Price Index calculator puts the average 30-year appreciation for a house in the ever-pricey San Francisco metropolitan area at 1,125%, compared with the national average of just 481% (http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp). So if you bought that $50,000 house in San Francisco in 1977, it would be worth about $613,000 today and, assuming much the same costs of ownership, you'd make a true profit of $219,000.
You would have done well in other coastal metro regions, too. The comparable house would be worth about $593,000 in Los Angeles (up 1,085%), $549,000 in New York (998%) and $432,000 in Washington (763%).
But some other big cities didn't fare as well. You'd be in the red in Chicago, where home values rose 463% and the house would be worth $282,000. Your house would be valued at only about $176,000 (252%) in Dallas and just $147,000 in Houston (193%).
Q: But even if I had bought in Texas, I'd still essentially break even. Buying let me live "rent free" for 30 years.
A: Living "rent free" is moving in with your parents or your wealthy lover in Tuscany. You didn't live rent free. You had some of your rent money subsidized and then some more rebated.
Yes, you are sitting on a lot of home value, but you've spent a lot -- probably more than the house is worth -- getting what you have. And you almost certainly lost some investing opportunities along the way while you were spending your money buying the house.
And that's assuming everything breaks your way. If you don't sell at the top of the market, you could see stagnant or falling values for a while. There have been real-estate bubbles before. In San Francisco, where it looks like prices may have hit their high mark in the third quarter of 2006, home values peaked in early 1990 before falling for the next eight years. Houston saw a modest surge in the '80s, followed by an equally modest decline and then two decades of grindingly slow appreciation.
Q: That's still money that I wouldn't see otherwise. Even getting just some of my money back is better than getting none.
A: But there's another kicker. You haven't gotten any money back yet. All you have is a house that's 30 years older than when you moved in. In order to realize your windfall, you'll have to borrow against it or sell it.
If you borrow against a house you've paid off, then you will start mortgage payments all over again.
If you sell it, what are you going to do with that big check in your pocket after you've walked around for a couple of hours feeling richer than you've ever been? You'll probably spend most of it in just a day or so buying another house.
Q: So I'll downsize, find a smaller, cheaper house, buy it and then invest the rest of the money.
A: Prices tend to rise or fall across an entire market. So if you want to stay in the same metropolitan region and save a big chunk of your rebated nest egg, you should be prepared to go significantly downscale -- move to a much less desirable neighborhood.
Consider a hypothetical Washington-area couple who bought their home for $55,000 in 1977.
With improvements and market appreciation they appear to have done quite well. If they sell their house today, they could expect to get something in the neighborhood of $860,000. And they would walk out of the closing meeting with a rebate check of about $550,000, of which about $175,000 would be profit.
But they're facing a tough market where the median price of a condo is two-thirds the cost of a single-family home. They don't have enough money to make the most obvious move down -- from their house to a comparable apartment that would cost around $575,000.
Q: Then I'll move to someplace cheaper, like Houston.
A: You still face borrowing or spending all or most of your cash on your new house -- and you will still have maintenance, property taxes, insurance and other "I have to pay something" costs.
If our Washington couple chooses to leave and move to a cheaper housing market, they will still have costs greater than they think. Popular retirement communities are usually cheaper than big metropolitan areas, but they are not so cheap that sale proceeds will plant them on a country-club fairway and pay for the lifestyle that goes with it.
According to Coldwell Banker's often-cited home-comparison calculator, a house comparable to the place in Washington would cost $439,000 in Fort Myers, Fla., or $407,000 in Orlando. The couple would do a little better moving to Tucson, Ariz., where the comparable house costs $281,000 -- leaving the sellers with less than half of their rebate windfall.
So yes, cashing out in Washington -- or San Francisco or New York -- will give you enough money to buy a nice place on a golf course somewhere in the Sun Belt. And you might have $200,000 or $300,000 left over.
Q: So what can I do if I've planned too much of my retirement around my investment in my home?
A: If you already own your home, you can still rein in your expenses, and diversify your investments. Unfortunately, there's not a lot you can do about reducing many of the costs of home owning, such as property taxes or replacing a roof.
But you do have control over two of the biggest home-owning costs: interest and renovations. Both are big money losers. Even with the tax deduction, most of your mortgage interest is still just wasted rent money. So accelerating your principal payment will result in huge savings down the line. Add $300 a month to the payment on a 6.25%, $300,000 loan, and you'll save 10 years of payments and $83,000 of after-tax money -- enough to put a kid through a public university.
Few, if any, renovations make a profit. A new kitchen or family room might raise the resale value of a house, but rarely as much as they cost to build. And if the homeowner borrows the money, the renovation work could end up costing two or three times what the contractor charged.
If you don't already own your own home, do the math. Don't buy if you think you'll be moving in just a few years. Don't buy a house that's too big for your needs or so expensive that you will strain to pay for it simply because "it's a good investment." It's not.
Planning your retirement? Don't bet the house on it.
Your home means a lot of things to you, most of them good. Your home gives comfort and protection to you and your family, and it could well embody all your material hopes and dreams.
But houses have become much more than just places to live. Your home is probably your biggest asset, and the price you could ask for it today is almost certainly much higher than what you paid for it back whenever.
As a result, houses have become substitute credit cards, as profligate owners borrow their equity to finance everything from cars to vacations. Among thriftier owners, the equity they have built up in the family home has become a vital part of retirement planning -- a "fourth leg" of the now-unstable "company pension/personal savings/Social Security" stool that was long the model for a financially secure old age.
More from The Wall Street Journal Online:
• Buy a House Now, or Wait For Prices to Fall Some More?
• Mortgage Refinancing Gets Tougher
• Debating Standards for Mortgage Lenders
Unfortunately for both groups, however, houses are not very good investments. For the grasshoppers, there's nothing quite as stupid as paying off your 2002 trip to Orlando in 2032, when you finally settle up your refinanced "cash out" 30-year mortgage. And for the ants, economic studies have demonstrated over and over that houses (1) cost more than most people make when they sell and (2) rarely match the long-term returns of stocks or other investments.
And that's doubly true today, with much of the U.S. well into a real-estate recession. It's unlikely that homeowners in once-booming areas will see a return of skyrocketing prices anytime soon.
"Real-estate investments suffer serious and sometimes prolonged downturns," writes economist W. Van Harlow in a new study of home equity and retirement from the Fidelity Research Institute in Boston. "A real-estate 'bust' could be quite damaging to an investor nearing retirement who relied too heavily on home equity."
It may be late for a lot of homeowners to read this, but here it goes anyway: It's risky and bad planning to have too much of your net worth in your principal residence. No prudent stock-market player would put 60% or 70% of a portfolio in just one stock, but millions will hold that much or more of their total net worth in just one house.
Food for thought:
• If you bought a house in Los Angeles in 1990, just as the real-estate market turned downward, you would have had to wait a decade for your home's value to return to what you paid.
• If you bought in Rochester, N.Y., in 1980, you would have seen only a mediocre 4% annual growth for the next 25 years.
• If you bought in Dallas in 1986, as the oil boom went bust, your home wouldn't have appreciated at all before 1998.
So with all that in mind, here's a question-and-answer rundown of some financial issues of home owning.
Q: My home is my largest asset. Why shouldn't I rely on it to provide my nest egg?
A: Because a house can be an inefficient means of investing, and it costs far more to buy and operate than you think. Homeowners can easily end up paying more to live in their houses than the supposed "profit" they make when they sell them.
When most homeowners figure their returns, they don't do much more than subtract the price they paid from the price they received. Then they come up with a really big return because they paid only a 10% or 20% down payment. So they figure they made a huge "profit."
But they didn't. That's because the costs of owning a home -- buying it with a long-term mortgage and then paying taxes on it, insuring it, repairing it, renovating it -- sap most of what most homeowners think they make in price appreciation.
Houses are nice financially because there are not many other things you buy that actually go up in value, and not many things can put a six-figure check in your pocket when you sell them. But don't delude yourself: You've already spent most of that check, and you are likely to spend the rest in just a few days when you buy a new home.
Think of your sale proceeds another way: not as a true profit, but as a huge rebate. Some of the thousands of dollars that you paid into the house over the years are being returned to you -- sometimes with a bonus, often without.
Q: But it's certainly better to buy a house than to pay rent.
A: That depends on when you buy, and how long you own. Buy at the wrong time -- like during the kind of buying frenzy that much of the country has just experienced -- and you could well end up wishing you had rented instead.
Boom market or bust, home buying has so many extra costs -- from upfront "points" paid to a lender to title insurance and appraisal fees -- that over the first five to seven years, a renter who invests the equivalent of a down payment in stocks could easily do better overall than a house buyer. Compounding that problem: Most homeowners move within seven years.
As the ownership timeline stretches out to 15, 20 or 30 years, however, the buyer will almost certainly do better than the renter, especially given the tax benefits of paying mortgage interest over traditional rent and the big rebate when the owner finally sells.
But the typical buy vs. rent argument clouds the more important point: A house is an inefficient way of building wealth.
costs_buying_home.gif
Q: But I have to live somewhere! And I have to pay something for a place to live. Certainly it's better to pay "deductible" mortgage interest than rent.
A: Buying a house with a long-term mortgage is just another form of renting.
Mortgage interest is rent that you pay to your lender for the use of its money rather than to a landlord for the use of his house. Yes, the government picks up a portion of that with the tax deduction, but most of your monthly payment neither builds equity nor is deductible. It just goes down the same black hole that sucks up any other renter's money. And it takes 20 years before a typical borrower pays more principal each month than interest.
"I have to pay something" is a rationale that home buyers use for going deeply in debt and paying tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest to buy a house that, they mistakenly believe, will make a big profit for them down the line.
Q: So how much does a house really cost?
A: You can easily end up spending three times the purchase price of a house. Today's buyer of a typical $300,000 single-family home who takes out a 30-year loan will end up paying the price of the house again just in interest. Add 30 years of property taxes, homeowner's insurance, regular maintenance and a couple of big-ticket repairs or improvements, and the total cost of buying the home could easily top out at well over $1 million.
Q: Yes, but the house will be worth much, much more.
A: Maybe, maybe not. Whether you come out ahead depends on where and when you buy. Even cash buyers might be surprised to see that they can't be assured of making a profit.
"The Costs of Home Ownership" table is a simplified rundown on a typical single-family home -- a house that was bought for $50,000 in 1977 -- based on national appreciation rates as reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Included are modest estimates of other home-owning costs (not adjusted for inflation). To keep things simple, there are no transaction costs, no additional borrowing to finance improvements and no refinancing costs, all of which would drive the expenses even higher. It's not a pretty picture.
costs_home_ownership.gif
Q: Those numbers don't seem realistic for where I live. You can't buy a house here for that kind of money.
A: To be sure, not everyone did so badly as the national average. OFHEO's Home Price Index calculator puts the average 30-year appreciation for a house in the ever-pricey San Francisco metropolitan area at 1,125%, compared with the national average of just 481% (http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp). So if you bought that $50,000 house in San Francisco in 1977, it would be worth about $613,000 today and, assuming much the same costs of ownership, you'd make a true profit of $219,000.
You would have done well in other coastal metro regions, too. The comparable house would be worth about $593,000 in Los Angeles (up 1,085%), $549,000 in New York (998%) and $432,000 in Washington (763%).
But some other big cities didn't fare as well. You'd be in the red in Chicago, where home values rose 463% and the house would be worth $282,000. Your house would be valued at only about $176,000 (252%) in Dallas and just $147,000 in Houston (193%).
Q: But even if I had bought in Texas, I'd still essentially break even. Buying let me live "rent free" for 30 years.
A: Living "rent free" is moving in with your parents or your wealthy lover in Tuscany. You didn't live rent free. You had some of your rent money subsidized and then some more rebated.
Yes, you are sitting on a lot of home value, but you've spent a lot -- probably more than the house is worth -- getting what you have. And you almost certainly lost some investing opportunities along the way while you were spending your money buying the house.
And that's assuming everything breaks your way. If you don't sell at the top of the market, you could see stagnant or falling values for a while. There have been real-estate bubbles before. In San Francisco, where it looks like prices may have hit their high mark in the third quarter of 2006, home values peaked in early 1990 before falling for the next eight years. Houston saw a modest surge in the '80s, followed by an equally modest decline and then two decades of grindingly slow appreciation.
Q: That's still money that I wouldn't see otherwise. Even getting just some of my money back is better than getting none.
A: But there's another kicker. You haven't gotten any money back yet. All you have is a house that's 30 years older than when you moved in. In order to realize your windfall, you'll have to borrow against it or sell it.
If you borrow against a house you've paid off, then you will start mortgage payments all over again.
If you sell it, what are you going to do with that big check in your pocket after you've walked around for a couple of hours feeling richer than you've ever been? You'll probably spend most of it in just a day or so buying another house.
Q: So I'll downsize, find a smaller, cheaper house, buy it and then invest the rest of the money.
A: Prices tend to rise or fall across an entire market. So if you want to stay in the same metropolitan region and save a big chunk of your rebated nest egg, you should be prepared to go significantly downscale -- move to a much less desirable neighborhood.
Consider a hypothetical Washington-area couple who bought their home for $55,000 in 1977.
With improvements and market appreciation they appear to have done quite well. If they sell their house today, they could expect to get something in the neighborhood of $860,000. And they would walk out of the closing meeting with a rebate check of about $550,000, of which about $175,000 would be profit.
But they're facing a tough market where the median price of a condo is two-thirds the cost of a single-family home. They don't have enough money to make the most obvious move down -- from their house to a comparable apartment that would cost around $575,000.
Q: Then I'll move to someplace cheaper, like Houston.
A: You still face borrowing or spending all or most of your cash on your new house -- and you will still have maintenance, property taxes, insurance and other "I have to pay something" costs.
If our Washington couple chooses to leave and move to a cheaper housing market, they will still have costs greater than they think. Popular retirement communities are usually cheaper than big metropolitan areas, but they are not so cheap that sale proceeds will plant them on a country-club fairway and pay for the lifestyle that goes with it.
According to Coldwell Banker's often-cited home-comparison calculator, a house comparable to the place in Washington would cost $439,000 in Fort Myers, Fla., or $407,000 in Orlando. The couple would do a little better moving to Tucson, Ariz., where the comparable house costs $281,000 -- leaving the sellers with less than half of their rebate windfall.
So yes, cashing out in Washington -- or San Francisco or New York -- will give you enough money to buy a nice place on a golf course somewhere in the Sun Belt. And you might have $200,000 or $300,000 left over.
Q: So what can I do if I've planned too much of my retirement around my investment in my home?
A: If you already own your home, you can still rein in your expenses, and diversify your investments. Unfortunately, there's not a lot you can do about reducing many of the costs of home owning, such as property taxes or replacing a roof.
But you do have control over two of the biggest home-owning costs: interest and renovations. Both are big money losers. Even with the tax deduction, most of your mortgage interest is still just wasted rent money. So accelerating your principal payment will result in huge savings down the line. Add $300 a month to the payment on a 6.25%, $300,000 loan, and you'll save 10 years of payments and $83,000 of after-tax money -- enough to put a kid through a public university.
Few, if any, renovations make a profit. A new kitchen or family room might raise the resale value of a house, but rarely as much as they cost to build. And if the homeowner borrows the money, the renovation work could end up costing two or three times what the contractor charged.
If you don't already own your own home, do the math. Don't buy if you think you'll be moving in just a few years. Don't buy a house that's too big for your needs or so expensive that you will strain to pay for it simply because "it's a good investment." It's not.
家庭理财
在美国的全职妈妈们没有工作，但是只要自己有计划有准备，她们的生活是有保障的。这里我斗胆给不了解情况的筒子们简单介绍一些防御措施，投资渠道，以及政府福利等方面的信息。不敢班门弄斧，只是想把自己多年来积累的一些经验和常识介绍给大家，以供参考。首先声明这只是我个人的一些见解，不是专业服务。本人不负法律责任。
---防御措施---
１。首先要有一家人的医疗保险，通过工作单位购买。还有汽车保险，房产保险或租房者的保险等，都是必不可少的。
２。争取准备相当于６个月的生活费的应急款，以防失业等意外，造成暂时没有工资的情况。
３。购买人寿保险：一般工作单位都会自动提供一倍于工资的保额。此外，现在买寿险 （Term Life Insurance）很便宜。一个健康而不吸烟的４０岁的男人买一份保２０年５０万美金的寿险只需要４００－５００美金一年（具体保费多少网上能查到）。有孩子的家庭一定要有寿险。这点保费无论如何也不能省。对你的家庭太重要了。第一受益人先填全职妈妈。等孩子长大了可以修改，把所有的孩子都考虑到。
４。购买事故至残至死险（Accidental Death and Dismemberment Insurance )：这个更便宜。买２０万的保险只要
１００美金左右一年。如果你ＬＧ工作的单位不提供这项福利保险，你们可以直接找保险公司购买。此种保险，不保因病去世。没有年限，交钱就保，不交就停。孩子小的时候可考虑，因为保费很低。
以上３。４。两项加起来的总额应该是现有年收入的６－１０倍。想保证孩子上名牌大学的家庭，孩子多的家庭要多买，最好在１００万美元以上。）
另外，可以考虑给全职妈妈也买一份寿险。虽然全职妈妈没工作，但她每天所干的事情若需请人来做，还是很花钱的哦！
---投资渠道---
除了买高额的人寿保险，还要积极地进行金融投资。这是个很复杂的话题，希望我能用简洁的语言说个大体清楚。具体操作很复杂，但只要自己花点工夫去学，也不难。
１。 Pay Yourself First。每个月的工资留下足够支付日常开支和零花钱的部分，其余部分通过４０１（k），４０３（b),４５７计划等等退休投资渠道，尽量多投。一般工作单位的 退休计划(Retirement Planning)提供的选择很广。各种共同基金是最常用的。款额直接从工资里扣除，自动送到你在金融公司的账号里，很方便。个人如能花时间精力深入研究，对管理这些投资会很有帮助。注意第一受益人一栏要填上全职妈妈的名字。
４０１(k)和４０３(b)每年的上限是各１５０００美元.现在都有两个选择：
（１）税前(Pre-Tax)投资，可省当年的收入税。但拿钱出来用时要上收入税；
（２）Roth 401(k), Roth 403(b)是税后（After-Tax)投资。先要交当年的收入税，但以后 再也不需要上税了。
４５７计划是个人退休补充计划。是为政府和教育机构的工作者提供的补充退休计划。每年的上限是４万多美元。但这是irreversible的，就是一旦你们在表上填了一个定数，就得一直投到你ＬＧ退休或离开该工作，到时签约才失效。是否考虑此计划，依各家的情况 自定。这是税前（Pre_Tax)投资。
２。 Roth IRA（与前面的Roth 401(k), Roth 403(b)不同）：税后投资。夫妻每人每年还可投４０００美元，有收入限制。请查ＩＲＳ网站或ＹＡＨＯＯ ＦＩＮＡＮＣＥ等了解更多 信息。 Roth IRA可以投入任何一种金融手段：股票，共同基金，政府债券，Money Market Fund， 银行ＣＤ等等。用钱时不上税。
３。教育投资：
（１）。５２９计划。每年每个家庭最多可投１６０００美金，有些州可免州税，以６％算每年可省９６０美元州税。每个孩子账号里的钱有上限，约２３万美金。这项投资由大的金融公司管理，投资人不能自由交换，买卖。孩子上大学从里面提款交学杂费，不用上税。
（２）。Coverdell Education Savings Accounts(原称Education IRA): 每个孩子每年可投２０００美元。投资渠道和Roth IRA一样，很自由。这是税后投资，拿钱出来交学费等也不上税。
（３）。ＵＧＭＡ／ＵＴＭＡ：这种投资要交所得税。填税时很让人头疼。可以不考虑。集中资金投入前两项。
以上是一般家庭需要考虑的理财的几个方面。只是列了个清单，很不详细。大家要自己花功夫去分项仔细研究。
－－－失业及伤亡的福利待遇－－－
下面再说说如遇失业及伤亡事故时，来自工作单位和政府的福利。
１。如果ＬＧ失业 ，可以领取失业金(Unemployment Benefit)，具体金额要与Social Security（ＳＳ）部门联系才能知道。有时间限制，一般是几个月到半年。（具体情况请自己核实。）
２。如果ＬＧ不幸致残：
（１）。你ＬＧ的工作单位可能会继续发一部分的工资给你们。每个家庭都应该搞清楚工作单位的福利待遇都有些什么，估算一下每项能有多少钱。
（２）。ＳＳ会给你ＬＧ和家人伤残福利（Disability Benefits）。每年ＳＳ都会给所有工作的人寄一封信，里面有这方面的信息。或去ＳＳ网站查寻。
３。如果ＬＧ不幸去世：
（１）。领取各种各样的寿险。
（２）。ＳＳ也会给全职妈妈和一个１６岁以下的孩子两份福利（这跟政府救济穷人的 Welfare完全是两码事儿）。加起来一共能拿到三万左右一年，每个家庭能拿到的钱有上限。 即使一个家庭有超过一个未满１６岁的孩子，最多也只能拿到三万左右一年。
（３）。如果你ＬＧ的工作提供传统退休金(Traditional Pension)，你还能从你ＬＧ的工 作单位领取他的退休金，一般是从他达到法定的退休年龄起开始领取。
从上面所有这些列项看，你ＬＧ值很多钱啊。要善待他哦。不要嫌他挣钱不够多。只要你们好生计划，合理投资，你们的好日子可以一直过下去，还会越来越好。
最后要说的是遗产安排。ＬＧ若是去世，留下这么多的钱，没有遗产计划是不行的。要找律师咨询并备好相关的法律材料。夫妻两人还要各自立一份遗嘱，写明一切需要交代的事情，如未成年儿童的抚养人等等至关重要的事。
如果把上面这些事做好了，全职妈妈就可高枕无忧了。不过这只是相对而言。前面没有提到婚变的可能。不过即使真的婚变，ＬＧ也得负担孩子和前妻的生活。离婚时夫妻共有的财产，包括ＬＧ所有的退休计划里的钱，一般都是平分的。但愿不要发生那样的事，对家庭和孩子都最好。
---防御措施---
１。首先要有一家人的医疗保险，通过工作单位购买。还有汽车保险，房产保险或租房者的保险等，都是必不可少的。
２。争取准备相当于６个月的生活费的应急款，以防失业等意外，造成暂时没有工资的情况。
３。购买人寿保险：一般工作单位都会自动提供一倍于工资的保额。此外，现在买寿险 （Term Life Insurance）很便宜。一个健康而不吸烟的４０岁的男人买一份保２０年５０万美金的寿险只需要４００－５００美金一年（具体保费多少网上能查到）。有孩子的家庭一定要有寿险。这点保费无论如何也不能省。对你的家庭太重要了。第一受益人先填全职妈妈。等孩子长大了可以修改，把所有的孩子都考虑到。
４。购买事故至残至死险（Accidental Death and Dismemberment Insurance )：这个更便宜。买２０万的保险只要
１００美金左右一年。如果你ＬＧ工作的单位不提供这项福利保险，你们可以直接找保险公司购买。此种保险，不保因病去世。没有年限，交钱就保，不交就停。孩子小的时候可考虑，因为保费很低。
以上３。４。两项加起来的总额应该是现有年收入的６－１０倍。想保证孩子上名牌大学的家庭，孩子多的家庭要多买，最好在１００万美元以上。）
另外，可以考虑给全职妈妈也买一份寿险。虽然全职妈妈没工作，但她每天所干的事情若需请人来做，还是很花钱的哦！
---投资渠道---
除了买高额的人寿保险，还要积极地进行金融投资。这是个很复杂的话题，希望我能用简洁的语言说个大体清楚。具体操作很复杂，但只要自己花点工夫去学，也不难。
１。 Pay Yourself First。每个月的工资留下足够支付日常开支和零花钱的部分，其余部分通过４０１（k），４０３（b),４５７计划等等退休投资渠道，尽量多投。一般工作单位的 退休计划(Retirement Planning)提供的选择很广。各种共同基金是最常用的。款额直接从工资里扣除，自动送到你在金融公司的账号里，很方便。个人如能花时间精力深入研究，对管理这些投资会很有帮助。注意第一受益人一栏要填上全职妈妈的名字。
４０１(k)和４０３(b)每年的上限是各１５０００美元.现在都有两个选择：
（１）税前(Pre-Tax)投资，可省当年的收入税。但拿钱出来用时要上收入税；
（２）Roth 401(k), Roth 403(b)是税后（After-Tax)投资。先要交当年的收入税，但以后 再也不需要上税了。
４５７计划是个人退休补充计划。是为政府和教育机构的工作者提供的补充退休计划。每年的上限是４万多美元。但这是irreversible的，就是一旦你们在表上填了一个定数，就得一直投到你ＬＧ退休或离开该工作，到时签约才失效。是否考虑此计划，依各家的情况 自定。这是税前（Pre_Tax)投资。
２。 Roth IRA（与前面的Roth 401(k), Roth 403(b)不同）：税后投资。夫妻每人每年还可投４０００美元，有收入限制。请查ＩＲＳ网站或ＹＡＨＯＯ ＦＩＮＡＮＣＥ等了解更多 信息。 Roth IRA可以投入任何一种金融手段：股票，共同基金，政府债券，Money Market Fund， 银行ＣＤ等等。用钱时不上税。
３。教育投资：
（１）。５２９计划。每年每个家庭最多可投１６０００美金，有些州可免州税，以６％算每年可省９６０美元州税。每个孩子账号里的钱有上限，约２３万美金。这项投资由大的金融公司管理，投资人不能自由交换，买卖。孩子上大学从里面提款交学杂费，不用上税。
（２）。Coverdell Education Savings Accounts(原称Education IRA): 每个孩子每年可投２０００美元。投资渠道和Roth IRA一样，很自由。这是税后投资，拿钱出来交学费等也不上税。
（３）。ＵＧＭＡ／ＵＴＭＡ：这种投资要交所得税。填税时很让人头疼。可以不考虑。集中资金投入前两项。
以上是一般家庭需要考虑的理财的几个方面。只是列了个清单，很不详细。大家要自己花功夫去分项仔细研究。
－－－失业及伤亡的福利待遇－－－
下面再说说如遇失业及伤亡事故时，来自工作单位和政府的福利。
１。如果ＬＧ失业 ，可以领取失业金(Unemployment Benefit)，具体金额要与Social Security（ＳＳ）部门联系才能知道。有时间限制，一般是几个月到半年。（具体情况请自己核实。）
２。如果ＬＧ不幸致残：
（１）。你ＬＧ的工作单位可能会继续发一部分的工资给你们。每个家庭都应该搞清楚工作单位的福利待遇都有些什么，估算一下每项能有多少钱。
（２）。ＳＳ会给你ＬＧ和家人伤残福利（Disability Benefits）。每年ＳＳ都会给所有工作的人寄一封信，里面有这方面的信息。或去ＳＳ网站查寻。
３。如果ＬＧ不幸去世：
（１）。领取各种各样的寿险。
（２）。ＳＳ也会给全职妈妈和一个１６岁以下的孩子两份福利（这跟政府救济穷人的 Welfare完全是两码事儿）。加起来一共能拿到三万左右一年，每个家庭能拿到的钱有上限。 即使一个家庭有超过一个未满１６岁的孩子，最多也只能拿到三万左右一年。
（３）。如果你ＬＧ的工作提供传统退休金(Traditional Pension)，你还能从你ＬＧ的工 作单位领取他的退休金，一般是从他达到法定的退休年龄起开始领取。
从上面所有这些列项看，你ＬＧ值很多钱啊。要善待他哦。不要嫌他挣钱不够多。只要你们好生计划，合理投资，你们的好日子可以一直过下去，还会越来越好。
最后要说的是遗产安排。ＬＧ若是去世，留下这么多的钱，没有遗产计划是不行的。要找律师咨询并备好相关的法律材料。夫妻两人还要各自立一份遗嘱，写明一切需要交代的事情，如未成年儿童的抚养人等等至关重要的事。
如果把上面这些事做好了，全职妈妈就可高枕无忧了。不过这只是相对而言。前面没有提到婚变的可能。不过即使真的婚变，ＬＧ也得负担孩子和前妻的生活。离婚时夫妻共有的财产，包括ＬＧ所有的退休计划里的钱，一般都是平分的。但愿不要发生那样的事，对家庭和孩子都最好。
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
精明少妇婚后四年理财心得
一.家用：
1.卫生间里放一，两个桶，收集些较干净的水循环使用。
2.不浪费粮食，买菜时不要买多了。
3.蔬菜，水果在菜场购买，新鲜，便宜。
4.自己能制作的东西，如抄手，酸菜，泡菜等，自己DIY。
5.日常生活用品，荤菜，食用油(尽量买压榨油)，米，调料在大型超市购买，质量较有保证。
6.尽量少购买超市的成品与半成品，那是属于看上去很美，味道不怎么样滴。
7.洗衣粉等洗涤用品用品牌产品(如花王洁霸)质量有保证，洗涤效果佳。
8.家里可准备些粉条，黄花，紫菜的干货，不想弄饭时弄个简单的汤。
9.一周可煲次汤，不要太多，放在冰箱里，不想弄菜时，就煮点菜进去，再炒个素菜，也比上餐馆便宜，卫生。
10.多看看烹饪的网站或博客，学点特色菜。
二.家电：
1.小家电(如吸尘器，豆浆机，果汁机等)大多较贵，而且用处不大，能不买就不买。(目前我家用得最多的就是豆浆机，怀孕时购买)
2.其他家电(电视，空调，洗衣机等)选择品牌货，而且最好在大型的家电卖场购买。质量好，维修方便。
三.出行：
1.如果不是为了面子，选择经济型轿车，代步即可。油钱还有进一步上涨的可能性，小型车用油量比较节约，停车费，保险费等各方面都要少一些。
2.现在的公车都比较好，而且路线也方便，尽量少打车。多走点路也当锻炼身体。
四.保险：
1.养老，医疗，意外三个险种即可，投资性的险种意义不大。
2.保证大人，才能保证孩子，不用给孩子买太多的险，特别是储蓄性险种。相信自己，你自己用这点钱做点小投资也许比保险公司做收益还高一点点。
五.孩子：
1.奶粉可用好一点的品牌，如果有条件，不要给三岁前的小孩喝鲜奶。
2.衣服，鞋子干净，舒服即可，不用买什么名牌，孩子长得太快，不一会，裤子就到脚踝了。
3.给她买昂贵的玩具，不如多花点时间陪她玩或带她出去多看看。
4.给孩子养成一个良好生活，学习习惯比花钱让他们学特长或上名校更有用。
5.很多事情让她自己去尝试，不用样样都代她做完。因为她总归会走自己的路。
六.房子：
1.有条件住好房子或购房做投资固然好，如果条件尚末成熟，不必想到一步到位。中国的房子是五十到七十年的使用期，实际上我们只是把先把租金付完而已。
2.如果有小一点的孩子，在父母家附近比较方便；如果有一份稳定的工作，购房在公司附近可省一笔交通，餐饮费，而且住得近，不用挤车，受些不必要的气。(鱼和熊掌不可兼得也)
七.护肤品：
1.保持好的睡眠与心情远比用昂贵的护肤品管用。
2.可经常看一些护肤品的论坛，看看其他JM的心得。
3.有些较正规的网站，购买化妆品品质有保证，而且价格也便宜。
八.其他
1.书啊这些东西可上当当，卓越这些网站购买，价格便宜得多。特别是打特价或搞活动的时候，而且当当还可上门送货收款。
2.做清洁是件很累人的事情，可找值得信赖的清洁工，钱不多，而且可节省很多时间。
3.一定要经常锻炼身体，有一个良好的身体就是节约钱。
4.上超市时准备个清单，而且减少去的次数，能用信用卡就用信用卡，如果在你经常去的超市有个积分卡，年底会一点点小小的惊喜。
5.多学习，努力提高自己的业务知识，也是升职，加薪和去更好的公司作准备。
6.钱不用看得太重，越看重钱，越累。心理及身体的负担越重。
1.卫生间里放一，两个桶，收集些较干净的水循环使用。
2.不浪费粮食，买菜时不要买多了。
3.蔬菜，水果在菜场购买，新鲜，便宜。
4.自己能制作的东西，如抄手，酸菜，泡菜等，自己DIY。
5.日常生活用品，荤菜，食用油(尽量买压榨油)，米，调料在大型超市购买，质量较有保证。
6.尽量少购买超市的成品与半成品，那是属于看上去很美，味道不怎么样滴。
7.洗衣粉等洗涤用品用品牌产品(如花王洁霸)质量有保证，洗涤效果佳。
8.家里可准备些粉条，黄花，紫菜的干货，不想弄饭时弄个简单的汤。
9.一周可煲次汤，不要太多，放在冰箱里，不想弄菜时，就煮点菜进去，再炒个素菜，也比上餐馆便宜，卫生。
10.多看看烹饪的网站或博客，学点特色菜。
二.家电：
1.小家电(如吸尘器，豆浆机，果汁机等)大多较贵，而且用处不大，能不买就不买。(目前我家用得最多的就是豆浆机，怀孕时购买)
2.其他家电(电视，空调，洗衣机等)选择品牌货，而且最好在大型的家电卖场购买。质量好，维修方便。
三.出行：
1.如果不是为了面子，选择经济型轿车，代步即可。油钱还有进一步上涨的可能性，小型车用油量比较节约，停车费，保险费等各方面都要少一些。
2.现在的公车都比较好，而且路线也方便，尽量少打车。多走点路也当锻炼身体。
四.保险：
1.养老，医疗，意外三个险种即可，投资性的险种意义不大。
2.保证大人，才能保证孩子，不用给孩子买太多的险，特别是储蓄性险种。相信自己，你自己用这点钱做点小投资也许比保险公司做收益还高一点点。
五.孩子：
1.奶粉可用好一点的品牌，如果有条件，不要给三岁前的小孩喝鲜奶。
2.衣服，鞋子干净，舒服即可，不用买什么名牌，孩子长得太快，不一会，裤子就到脚踝了。
3.给她买昂贵的玩具，不如多花点时间陪她玩或带她出去多看看。
4.给孩子养成一个良好生活，学习习惯比花钱让他们学特长或上名校更有用。
5.很多事情让她自己去尝试，不用样样都代她做完。因为她总归会走自己的路。
六.房子：
1.有条件住好房子或购房做投资固然好，如果条件尚末成熟，不必想到一步到位。中国的房子是五十到七十年的使用期，实际上我们只是把先把租金付完而已。
2.如果有小一点的孩子，在父母家附近比较方便；如果有一份稳定的工作，购房在公司附近可省一笔交通，餐饮费，而且住得近，不用挤车，受些不必要的气。(鱼和熊掌不可兼得也)
七.护肤品：
1.保持好的睡眠与心情远比用昂贵的护肤品管用。
2.可经常看一些护肤品的论坛，看看其他JM的心得。
3.有些较正规的网站，购买化妆品品质有保证，而且价格也便宜。
八.其他
1.书啊这些东西可上当当，卓越这些网站购买，价格便宜得多。特别是打特价或搞活动的时候，而且当当还可上门送货收款。
2.做清洁是件很累人的事情，可找值得信赖的清洁工，钱不多，而且可节省很多时间。
3.一定要经常锻炼身体，有一个良好的身体就是节约钱。
4.上超市时准备个清单，而且减少去的次数，能用信用卡就用信用卡，如果在你经常去的超市有个积分卡，年底会一点点小小的惊喜。
5.多学习，努力提高自己的业务知识，也是升职，加薪和去更好的公司作准备。
6.钱不用看得太重，越看重钱，越累。心理及身体的负担越重。
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Five Long-Term Real Estate Picks
Friday March 9, 1:40 pm ET
ByJennifer Openshaw, TheStreet.com Contributor
Like most Millionaire Zone investors, you invest long term. You like real estate because it has a solid long-term, fundamentals-based track record over the long haul.
So why does every real estate forecast you read only take you through the end of this year or 2008 at the latest? Short-term forecasts are nice -- especially if you're a real estate agent -- but as a real estate investor, I like to look at the longer term.
ADVERTISEMENT
I know my crystal ball can't forecast interest rates much better than anyone else's. And that makes predicting specific prices say, 10 years down the road, a real stretch.
So I won't do that. But here's what I can do: I can predict which residential markets are most likely to see strong and sustainable growth over the next decade.
My crystal ball, which employs metro-area facts and figures I recently obtained from industry expert Bert Sperling, combines several factors across some 375 U.S. metro areas:
* Future job growth. To me, the long-term job picture is key to real estate and especially investment real estate growth. My picks have at least a 20% projected future job growth through 2010.
* Affordability. Picks should have modest prices relative to local incomes. I eliminated areas with median home prices more than five times median household incomes, and areas where median home prices exceed $250,000.
* Stability. It's hard to guess where boom-bust markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston and smaller markets like Texas border towns are going, so I disregarded them.
* Room to move. I want up-and-comers, not markets with the best days already behind them. Those appreciating more than 100% during the 2002-06 boom are out.
Click here for the video version of this story from Jennifer Openshaw.
So here are my five picks.
* Austin, Texas (median home price, or MHP, $176,700; future job growth, or FJG, 28.1%)
As a real estate market, the solid Texas capital city has everything going its way -- steady state-government employment and tech-led private employment bursting at the seams.
As if that weren't enough, it's also home to the University of Texas, and I'm a big fan of college-town real estate. There's lots to do and lots to attract people for a long time, with few downsides.
* Bend, Ore. (MHP $229,000; FJG 30.8%)
Way up in the sagebrush plateau east of the Cascades -- but not too far east to enjoy the skiing -- is the booming and somewhat upscale enclave of Bend. There's lots of wealth here, lots more arriving and the job base isn't just tourism anymore. You may end up living in your investment someday when you retire.
* Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark. (MHP $168,400; FJG 32.9%)
Once a sleepy center mainly known for chickens and trucking, this booming area is sometimes just called Northwest Arkansas after its now busy airport.
Of course, the elephant in the room lies in adjacent Bentonville in the form of Wal-Mart's world headquarters. Wal-Mart employs thousands, but the real story is the growing economic base of companies serving Wal-Mart's needs.
* Fort Collins-Loveland, Colo. (MHP $237,000; FJG 22.9%)
This is another classic college town story (Colorado State University), but with a large and diverse commercial and technology base nearby. Students, professors, well-paid professionals and retirees from other parts of Colorado and elsewhere are drawn to The Fort and its sparkling Front Range vistas.
* Raleigh-Cary, N.C. (MHP $207,700; FJG 20.3%)
This rapidly growing metro complex also includes the college and commercial centers of Durham and Chapel Hill. The economy has so many strengths it's hard to know where to begin. Sitting in the center is the impressive 7,000-acre Research Triangle Park, one of the world's most concentrated bases of applied and basic research with some 150 companies represented.
The area is located halfway between the major East Coast markets and Florida and is picking up new residents from both, as the former retreat from crowding and high prices and the latter from hurricanes. The area is a solid bet.
Of course, for you investors, this just begins the quest. I've brought you to the front of the store. The next job is to walk in and start shopping.
ByJennifer Openshaw, TheStreet.com Contributor
Like most Millionaire Zone investors, you invest long term. You like real estate because it has a solid long-term, fundamentals-based track record over the long haul.
So why does every real estate forecast you read only take you through the end of this year or 2008 at the latest? Short-term forecasts are nice -- especially if you're a real estate agent -- but as a real estate investor, I like to look at the longer term.
ADVERTISEMENT
I know my crystal ball can't forecast interest rates much better than anyone else's. And that makes predicting specific prices say, 10 years down the road, a real stretch.
So I won't do that. But here's what I can do: I can predict which residential markets are most likely to see strong and sustainable growth over the next decade.
My crystal ball, which employs metro-area facts and figures I recently obtained from industry expert Bert Sperling, combines several factors across some 375 U.S. metro areas:
* Future job growth. To me, the long-term job picture is key to real estate and especially investment real estate growth. My picks have at least a 20% projected future job growth through 2010.
* Affordability. Picks should have modest prices relative to local incomes. I eliminated areas with median home prices more than five times median household incomes, and areas where median home prices exceed $250,000.
* Stability. It's hard to guess where boom-bust markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston and smaller markets like Texas border towns are going, so I disregarded them.
* Room to move. I want up-and-comers, not markets with the best days already behind them. Those appreciating more than 100% during the 2002-06 boom are out.
Click here for the video version of this story from Jennifer Openshaw.
So here are my five picks.
* Austin, Texas (median home price, or MHP, $176,700; future job growth, or FJG, 28.1%)
As a real estate market, the solid Texas capital city has everything going its way -- steady state-government employment and tech-led private employment bursting at the seams.
As if that weren't enough, it's also home to the University of Texas, and I'm a big fan of college-town real estate. There's lots to do and lots to attract people for a long time, with few downsides.
* Bend, Ore. (MHP $229,000; FJG 30.8%)
Way up in the sagebrush plateau east of the Cascades -- but not too far east to enjoy the skiing -- is the booming and somewhat upscale enclave of Bend. There's lots of wealth here, lots more arriving and the job base isn't just tourism anymore. You may end up living in your investment someday when you retire.
* Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark. (MHP $168,400; FJG 32.9%)
Once a sleepy center mainly known for chickens and trucking, this booming area is sometimes just called Northwest Arkansas after its now busy airport.
Of course, the elephant in the room lies in adjacent Bentonville in the form of Wal-Mart's world headquarters. Wal-Mart employs thousands, but the real story is the growing economic base of companies serving Wal-Mart's needs.
* Fort Collins-Loveland, Colo. (MHP $237,000; FJG 22.9%)
This is another classic college town story (Colorado State University), but with a large and diverse commercial and technology base nearby. Students, professors, well-paid professionals and retirees from other parts of Colorado and elsewhere are drawn to The Fort and its sparkling Front Range vistas.
* Raleigh-Cary, N.C. (MHP $207,700; FJG 20.3%)
This rapidly growing metro complex also includes the college and commercial centers of Durham and Chapel Hill. The economy has so many strengths it's hard to know where to begin. Sitting in the center is the impressive 7,000-acre Research Triangle Park, one of the world's most concentrated bases of applied and basic research with some 150 companies represented.
The area is located halfway between the major East Coast markets and Florida and is picking up new residents from both, as the former retreat from crowding and high prices and the latter from hurricanes. The area is a solid bet.
Of course, for you investors, this just begins the quest. I've brought you to the front of the store. The next job is to walk in and start shopping.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
新手买房完全手册(3)-home loan科普(上)
说了满多费话, 可能不是新手最关心的问题. 现在loan其实是新手最关心的问题
.
对于serious一定要买房子的人来说, 你看房子之前其实要做这样几件事.
1. 知道自己的credit score怎么样. 我是个半serious的buyer,所以我一开始就花钱自己
去myfico.com买了report,看自己到底多少分, 看能不能带到钱.
出来的report是3家credit bureau的分数, 贷款的时候是看中间哪个分. 我当时是727.
2. 你看到自己的report后, 应该把不用的卡要cancel掉. 该付的balance伏掉. 我想有很多jm和我一样为了图department, cloth store 10% first time discount,申请了些店里的烂卡, 现在想来真是后悔呀.
3. 贷款的人一般看这几点:
(1)第一张卡是什么时候开的, 这是你的history,所以这就是为什么让各位第一张卡即使不用了也不要cancel.
(2)有多少张卡, 至少要3张, 5,6张左右最后, 在多了也是egative factory.
(3).有没有late pay呀,是不是近期too many request呀, balance是不是太高呀. 还有其他一些因素, 我不是专业人士,这里就讲讲我知道的.
然后信用卡不要用完所有credit line,最后用个 百分之二,三十就好了. 象那些balance transfer的是很伤信用的.
4. 准备好你的银行statement.你自己估计一下你要伏多少头宽, 最后加上closing fee,然后捎捎在多点钱,就是你需要show的银行balance 了. 由于我是个超级不回管钱的人, 我把我门家的哪个帐目弄的奇乱无比, 还分好几个银行, 有时就为了图个小便宜,象ING,挣点利息, 把钱转来转去, 最后弄的银行statement 开不出来, 为次付出了惨痛的代价,
后面回在详写.
这个statement 不是说你给了就可以, 别人是要看上面的内容的.
比如有没有大的deposit,对于一些deposit是要解释的. 而我竟然让我门家的statement不能见人, 只好开VOD ( verification of deposit).
5. 用你的信用分, 和个人情况在你local的broker那里问问贷款的情况,了解一下自己可以拿到什么rate.但是这个只是个大概, 因为到具体情况后回有变的.
6. 开个pre-approve的letter.这个Letter, 是可以随时开的, 在e-loan可以当时就开出来, 记住不是pre qualify, pre-approve,上面说你可以带到多少钱,什么rate之类的. 这个只是个letter,你在这家拿了, 然后到真正loan的时候用别家的都可以.不需要伏任何责任.
那么对于loan本身来说, 一般按要求是要付20%的 头款, 在头宽不到20%的情况下,银行就回要求你对它的投资买个保险, 就是PMI ( private mortgage insurance). 这个PMI,是个白白花出去的钱, 花出去了就花出去了, 你不能的到任何benefit. 在这样的情况下,大
家为了避免这个PMI,就用两个loan. 比如 80/15, 80/10. 也就是第一个loan是80%的贷款, 第二个是个10%的. 就比如你买个10万的房子, 头款只付, 10%,那么,你第一个贷款80%,贷款amount是8万, 第二个是10%, 1万, 加上你自己付的1万, 就一共10 万了. 这样的loan 的好处在于, interest是可以免tax的, 但是PMI不可以.
以下都是对小头款的xdjm说的, 对 付20%的基本可以不用看下面的了.
我是选择的付5%的头款, 那样就带两个loan 80%, 15%.然后我通过报纸联系了一个agent. 前面说了没有什么朋友可以推荐看房的agent,现在也
同样没有可以推荐的贷款agent. 只好自己瞎蒙了. 前面有old cop推荐过最好付10%的头款, 因为10%和5%的program不一样, 有个很大的gap,所以如果你能付10%,那么那的rate会更好些.
我的条件是分数727, single F1, 做不查income,也就是不show pay check 和 W2.
这里要提一下做loan的时候你需要提供的check list:
1. income ( paycheck, 过去两年的报税表).
如果你不想这样show,那么你就要做个VOE ( verification of employee).
这个是个form,由lender 给你, 这个form是个标准格式. 然后你公司里添好了, 其中包括你从什么时间到什么时间在这个公司做, salary是多少. 然后公司签好字, fax给lender就好了. 那么这里就有个问题了. 有的同学会问, 那么我随便找个朋友签个字行不行? 行, 但是这个朋友一定是有business的. 因为在form上面有添你公司的电话, 而这个电话需要是个business电话, 他们可以在business 上面查的到的. 然后在最后approve的时候,银行回打电话去, 有时候也不打. 是抽查, 但是你不是得按他们会打来准备,不是吗?打去的时候就问一个问题” xxx是不是在这里工作”
2. 银行两个月的statement.
有很多人不善于理才, 而我就是其中一个. 我把我们的银行statement弄的乱七八糟, 钱
进进出出. 为了这个管钱的问题, 我和bf是讨论了很多次的, 我门两个都不愿意管钱, 最
后只的我做. 反正statement是秀不出来了, 因为我无法解释那些进进出出的deposit. 对
于大deposit是需要解释来源的. 这样我门就做了 VOD ( verification of deposit).
这个VOD,也是个标准格式, 各个银行都知道怎么帮你做. 我们有bank of American,
Washington mutual, ING direct. Bank of American 是service最好的, 出什么证明都
很快, 以后是坚决要用的. Lender去要求VOD, BOA当天就可以fax.
Washington mutual 是非常非常的烂. 它的VOD,你一定要write a letter to request
VOD, 然后他们在寄给lender,他们不接受phone call,也不能在branch办理, 只能写信.
所以如果你用这个烂银行, 你要提前做好准备. 在VOD上就写了过去两个月你的average
balance. 对于ING,你到是可以打电话request,但是也是要寄给你, 大概也的个5天. 所以
你要和你的lender沟通好, 看他门有没有经验和你的银行打过交道.
3. Visa. 这个其实是个很恶心的问题. 我在local问了多家, 其中一个broker帮我办了,
但是由于晚了一天fund钱给escrow,我已经用了eloan.但是local都不需要show visa,在我
明确告诉他们我是F1的情况下. 他们说it doesn’t matter.
但是我要说的是这里的F1 xdjm门, 你门也不要人为F1一定可以带到, 各个lender不一样.
你最好在之前告诉他们, 问他们要不要你的什么visa copy之类的, 即使他们不问这个问
题. 而我就偏偏吃了这个亏. 我用的是eloan, 在最后要close escrow了, 她门跑来要我
的visa,一看我是F1,马上就拒了. 我哪个心痛, tnnd的不早说, 最后一分钟出这个问题.
其实他们是要付很大责任的.
然后我知道很多broker给你直接就选了citizen,说citizen不check, 但是green
card要check. 我想这些也都是听听, 最好开始就跟broker,或lender讲好, 问能不能做,
不能做你可以马上换别家. Anyway, F1是一定可以带到款的, 这个不用担心,就看是从那
里带了.
现在俺谈谈怎么跟lender打交道.
Appraisal是根据lender 来, 一般是你确定好lender后, 有lender提出要求做什么样的,有的lender还会要求到他们制定的地方做. 而我刚开始不知道, 所以也百百浪费了250$.
这里有个这样的问题. 有的同学可能回问,那我不确定最后用那家怎么办呢?.在lender开始接受申请, process,一直到最后fund之前, 其实你都不需要付什么责任. 我的意思到不是鼓励大家任意乱换. 我是说如果他们最后实际情况和他们刚开始说的时候不一样, 那么你想换别的lender,不回因为前面已经付给目前lender什么钱而要增加cost.所以不到最后
一分种, 不要给lender什么钱. 如果是broker,你可以让他们把appraisal的钱放到closing cost里面去. 到最后来算. 而我刚开始傻傻的, 一开始就写了一个250$的支票, 但是后来又没有用哪个broker. 大家不要学我.
Broker,尤其是中国broker, trick及多, 费用也是差别很大.
在买房的时候, 你第一次付出去的钱, 也就是大家熟称的closing cost, 简而言之包括这
样三个大部分.
1. escrow company出的一个closing cost, 包括 insurance, title, 他们的各种杂费..每次当你问lender/broker closing cost是多少, 他们都回推脱说什么escrow 的费用他们不能control,所以无法知道确切的什么. 屁话, 其实他们心理是有数的. 这个是有个大概范围的, 根据你的房价来. 是有行规的. 而且在出escrow 那边的费用, escrow company也回和lender同气, 他们只间是要work out的. 具我所知就象是他们之间也回来
个加加剪减. 另外常打交道的escrow就那么几家, 如果是broker, 他在这个区域是肯定熟悉这些escrow company的.
2. 另外一部分就是lender cost. 比如broker的钱. 银行的钱, 这个是在一开始你买房的价钱定下来了, 在broker那里就知道这部分钱了.
在你刚开始申请loan的时候, Lender/broker会给你一个good faith estimate.
上面list出来大概的charge, 你的rate. 在这张表的左边是lender fee, 右边是escrow charge.
3. prepay的一部分. 比如你这个月25号close,那么银行就收从25到这个月底的interest.
如果有HOA,还有HOA, impound, property tax.
Impound 是一种伏款方式. Property tax是一年交两次, 你可以选择到时候交, 也可以选择每个月交给lender,然后lender 到时候帮你交. 后者就是impound, 你不用到时候在自己去做这件事情. 有的地方据说是impound是规定,一定要那样做.反正我门选择的是impound.
现在很多地方都有0 费用, 注意不是0 closing fee,因为第一次一般都不会0 closing.Lender无法确切知道escrow company那边的费用, 所以他们也不敢把自己的利润去cover escrow 那边的那部分, 而给你0 closing. 但是refinance 一般就很容易有0 closing了.
那么买房的0 费用, 就是指省lender fee. 到目前, 我在local问的多家都要有lender fee,一般都是在800到1500不等. 另外还要付做appraisal 的钱.
网上的一般都不要lender fee, 而且还有appraisal free,那样你基本可以省个几千的lender费用.
.
但是网上的贷款有一个不好的就是你无法面对面的交流, 而且对我这样英文认不了几个字的就更是痛苦呀. 那么多专业的数语.另外只有他们找你的分, 你找他们真是难上加难.
你要打很多很多电话, 也找不到人的. 我当时打到自己都讨厌自己, 决的我怎么是这样一个tough的customer呀. 所以第一次买房的人, 如果你经验不足, 就要好好考虑一下了.
local 的broker,最到的好处就是face to face交流. 但是费用就高些.而且中国broker感觉他们trick真是多, 也不怎么说真话, 给你的 Good faith estimate 也搞不好是个bath faith, 因为一开始可能很多item 他们都不写. 另外他们的rate还是稍稍高点, 但是是可以忍受的范围. 总之和他们打交到,就是要逼着他们把除了escrow的费用外, 他们这部分的费用一定要说清楚. 另外他们要求的appraisal fee 也要放到最后closing fee里面一起交
１。关于费用
当你选定了银行和Title company后，你的费用才能确定。一般Broker收四，五百块钱，不同的broker差别不大。不同的银行，费用会有差异。不同的Title company，费用也会有出入。至于prepay的一部分，是由Closing Date和你的贷款的具体情况决定的，跟任何人无关。
如此看来，并不存在中国经纪骗人的问题，因为每个Broker都是收四，五百块钱而已，其他的钱都没有进经纪人的腰包。但为什么却给人中国经纪骗人的印象呢？这是因为有的经纪人摸透了人的心理，他知道客人愿意找费用低的，所以他故意将费用说低。这样做的目的是为了抢到Case，他并不会因此多拿钱。实际上，费用在你选定了银行和Title company, Closing Date后是固定的。每家银行收费是个定数，Title company的费用会有一些出入。
所以，大家不用把精力放在费用上。但Builder和网上贷款时要小心费用。我的一个客户一月份在网上做的refinance，当时我们的利率没法跟网上报的比，就让他去作了，结果费用由开始保证的３０００多增加到６０００多,还有Impound, 可由于当时利率已升高只好close，现在
后悔莫及。另外象作者说的到最后关头挑毛病不close的也时有发生，因为如果市场利率走高，而他们的贷款多半是要卖掉，他们赚不到钱当然不想close deal.
２。关于appraisal fee
一般都会要求客人先付。原因就不用说了。
.
对于serious一定要买房子的人来说, 你看房子之前其实要做这样几件事.
1. 知道自己的credit score怎么样. 我是个半serious的buyer,所以我一开始就花钱自己
去myfico.com买了report,看自己到底多少分, 看能不能带到钱.
出来的report是3家credit bureau的分数, 贷款的时候是看中间哪个分. 我当时是727.
2. 你看到自己的report后, 应该把不用的卡要cancel掉. 该付的balance伏掉. 我想有很多jm和我一样为了图department, cloth store 10% first time discount,申请了些店里的烂卡, 现在想来真是后悔呀.
3. 贷款的人一般看这几点:
(1)第一张卡是什么时候开的, 这是你的history,所以这就是为什么让各位第一张卡即使不用了也不要cancel.
(2)有多少张卡, 至少要3张, 5,6张左右最后, 在多了也是egative factory.
(3).有没有late pay呀,是不是近期too many request呀, balance是不是太高呀. 还有其他一些因素, 我不是专业人士,这里就讲讲我知道的.
然后信用卡不要用完所有credit line,最后用个 百分之二,三十就好了. 象那些balance transfer的是很伤信用的.
4. 准备好你的银行statement.你自己估计一下你要伏多少头宽, 最后加上closing fee,然后捎捎在多点钱,就是你需要show的银行balance 了. 由于我是个超级不回管钱的人, 我把我门家的哪个帐目弄的奇乱无比, 还分好几个银行, 有时就为了图个小便宜,象ING,挣点利息, 把钱转来转去, 最后弄的银行statement 开不出来, 为次付出了惨痛的代价,
后面回在详写.
这个statement 不是说你给了就可以, 别人是要看上面的内容的.
比如有没有大的deposit,对于一些deposit是要解释的. 而我竟然让我门家的statement不能见人, 只好开VOD ( verification of deposit).
5. 用你的信用分, 和个人情况在你local的broker那里问问贷款的情况,了解一下自己可以拿到什么rate.但是这个只是个大概, 因为到具体情况后回有变的.
6. 开个pre-approve的letter.这个Letter, 是可以随时开的, 在e-loan可以当时就开出来, 记住不是pre qualify, pre-approve,上面说你可以带到多少钱,什么rate之类的. 这个只是个letter,你在这家拿了, 然后到真正loan的时候用别家的都可以.不需要伏任何责任.
那么对于loan本身来说, 一般按要求是要付20%的 头款, 在头宽不到20%的情况下,银行就回要求你对它的投资买个保险, 就是PMI ( private mortgage insurance). 这个PMI,是个白白花出去的钱, 花出去了就花出去了, 你不能的到任何benefit. 在这样的情况下,大
家为了避免这个PMI,就用两个loan. 比如 80/15, 80/10. 也就是第一个loan是80%的贷款, 第二个是个10%的. 就比如你买个10万的房子, 头款只付, 10%,那么,你第一个贷款80%,贷款amount是8万, 第二个是10%, 1万, 加上你自己付的1万, 就一共10 万了. 这样的loan 的好处在于, interest是可以免tax的, 但是PMI不可以.
以下都是对小头款的xdjm说的, 对 付20%的基本可以不用看下面的了.
我是选择的付5%的头款, 那样就带两个loan 80%, 15%.然后我通过报纸联系了一个agent. 前面说了没有什么朋友可以推荐看房的agent,现在也
同样没有可以推荐的贷款agent. 只好自己瞎蒙了. 前面有old cop推荐过最好付10%的头款, 因为10%和5%的program不一样, 有个很大的gap,所以如果你能付10%,那么那的rate会更好些.
我的条件是分数727, single F1, 做不查income,也就是不show pay check 和 W2.
这里要提一下做loan的时候你需要提供的check list:
1. income ( paycheck, 过去两年的报税表).
如果你不想这样show,那么你就要做个VOE ( verification of employee).
这个是个form,由lender 给你, 这个form是个标准格式. 然后你公司里添好了, 其中包括你从什么时间到什么时间在这个公司做, salary是多少. 然后公司签好字, fax给lender就好了. 那么这里就有个问题了. 有的同学会问, 那么我随便找个朋友签个字行不行? 行, 但是这个朋友一定是有business的. 因为在form上面有添你公司的电话, 而这个电话需要是个business电话, 他们可以在business 上面查的到的. 然后在最后approve的时候,银行回打电话去, 有时候也不打. 是抽查, 但是你不是得按他们会打来准备,不是吗?打去的时候就问一个问题” xxx是不是在这里工作”
2. 银行两个月的statement.
有很多人不善于理才, 而我就是其中一个. 我把我们的银行statement弄的乱七八糟, 钱
进进出出. 为了这个管钱的问题, 我和bf是讨论了很多次的, 我门两个都不愿意管钱, 最
后只的我做. 反正statement是秀不出来了, 因为我无法解释那些进进出出的deposit. 对
于大deposit是需要解释来源的. 这样我门就做了 VOD ( verification of deposit).
这个VOD,也是个标准格式, 各个银行都知道怎么帮你做. 我们有bank of American,
Washington mutual, ING direct. Bank of American 是service最好的, 出什么证明都
很快, 以后是坚决要用的. Lender去要求VOD, BOA当天就可以fax.
Washington mutual 是非常非常的烂. 它的VOD,你一定要write a letter to request
VOD, 然后他们在寄给lender,他们不接受phone call,也不能在branch办理, 只能写信.
所以如果你用这个烂银行, 你要提前做好准备. 在VOD上就写了过去两个月你的average
balance. 对于ING,你到是可以打电话request,但是也是要寄给你, 大概也的个5天. 所以
你要和你的lender沟通好, 看他门有没有经验和你的银行打过交道.
3. Visa. 这个其实是个很恶心的问题. 我在local问了多家, 其中一个broker帮我办了,
但是由于晚了一天fund钱给escrow,我已经用了eloan.但是local都不需要show visa,在我
明确告诉他们我是F1的情况下. 他们说it doesn’t matter.
但是我要说的是这里的F1 xdjm门, 你门也不要人为F1一定可以带到, 各个lender不一样.
你最好在之前告诉他们, 问他们要不要你的什么visa copy之类的, 即使他们不问这个问
题. 而我就偏偏吃了这个亏. 我用的是eloan, 在最后要close escrow了, 她门跑来要我
的visa,一看我是F1,马上就拒了. 我哪个心痛, tnnd的不早说, 最后一分钟出这个问题.
其实他们是要付很大责任的.
然后我知道很多broker给你直接就选了citizen,说citizen不check, 但是green
card要check. 我想这些也都是听听, 最好开始就跟broker,或lender讲好, 问能不能做,
不能做你可以马上换别家. Anyway, F1是一定可以带到款的, 这个不用担心,就看是从那
里带了.
现在俺谈谈怎么跟lender打交道.
Appraisal是根据lender 来, 一般是你确定好lender后, 有lender提出要求做什么样的,有的lender还会要求到他们制定的地方做. 而我刚开始不知道, 所以也百百浪费了250$.
这里有个这样的问题. 有的同学可能回问,那我不确定最后用那家怎么办呢?.在lender开始接受申请, process,一直到最后fund之前, 其实你都不需要付什么责任. 我的意思到不是鼓励大家任意乱换. 我是说如果他们最后实际情况和他们刚开始说的时候不一样, 那么你想换别的lender,不回因为前面已经付给目前lender什么钱而要增加cost.所以不到最后
一分种, 不要给lender什么钱. 如果是broker,你可以让他们把appraisal的钱放到closing cost里面去. 到最后来算. 而我刚开始傻傻的, 一开始就写了一个250$的支票, 但是后来又没有用哪个broker. 大家不要学我.
Broker,尤其是中国broker, trick及多, 费用也是差别很大.
在买房的时候, 你第一次付出去的钱, 也就是大家熟称的closing cost, 简而言之包括这
样三个大部分.
1. escrow company出的一个closing cost, 包括 insurance, title, 他们的各种杂费..每次当你问lender/broker closing cost是多少, 他们都回推脱说什么escrow 的费用他们不能control,所以无法知道确切的什么. 屁话, 其实他们心理是有数的. 这个是有个大概范围的, 根据你的房价来. 是有行规的. 而且在出escrow 那边的费用, escrow company也回和lender同气, 他们只间是要work out的. 具我所知就象是他们之间也回来
个加加剪减. 另外常打交道的escrow就那么几家, 如果是broker, 他在这个区域是肯定熟悉这些escrow company的.
2. 另外一部分就是lender cost. 比如broker的钱. 银行的钱, 这个是在一开始你买房的价钱定下来了, 在broker那里就知道这部分钱了.
在你刚开始申请loan的时候, Lender/broker会给你一个good faith estimate.
上面list出来大概的charge, 你的rate. 在这张表的左边是lender fee, 右边是escrow charge.
3. prepay的一部分. 比如你这个月25号close,那么银行就收从25到这个月底的interest.
如果有HOA,还有HOA, impound, property tax.
Impound 是一种伏款方式. Property tax是一年交两次, 你可以选择到时候交, 也可以选择每个月交给lender,然后lender 到时候帮你交. 后者就是impound, 你不用到时候在自己去做这件事情. 有的地方据说是impound是规定,一定要那样做.反正我门选择的是impound.
现在很多地方都有0 费用, 注意不是0 closing fee,因为第一次一般都不会0 closing.Lender无法确切知道escrow company那边的费用, 所以他们也不敢把自己的利润去cover escrow 那边的那部分, 而给你0 closing. 但是refinance 一般就很容易有0 closing了.
那么买房的0 费用, 就是指省lender fee. 到目前, 我在local问的多家都要有lender fee,一般都是在800到1500不等. 另外还要付做appraisal 的钱.
网上的一般都不要lender fee, 而且还有appraisal free,那样你基本可以省个几千的lender费用.
.
但是网上的贷款有一个不好的就是你无法面对面的交流, 而且对我这样英文认不了几个字的就更是痛苦呀. 那么多专业的数语.另外只有他们找你的分, 你找他们真是难上加难.
你要打很多很多电话, 也找不到人的. 我当时打到自己都讨厌自己, 决的我怎么是这样一个tough的customer呀. 所以第一次买房的人, 如果你经验不足, 就要好好考虑一下了.
local 的broker,最到的好处就是face to face交流. 但是费用就高些.而且中国broker感觉他们trick真是多, 也不怎么说真话, 给你的 Good faith estimate 也搞不好是个bath faith, 因为一开始可能很多item 他们都不写. 另外他们的rate还是稍稍高点, 但是是可以忍受的范围. 总之和他们打交到,就是要逼着他们把除了escrow的费用外, 他们这部分的费用一定要说清楚. 另外他们要求的appraisal fee 也要放到最后closing fee里面一起交
１。关于费用
当你选定了银行和Title company后，你的费用才能确定。一般Broker收四，五百块钱，不同的broker差别不大。不同的银行，费用会有差异。不同的Title company，费用也会有出入。至于prepay的一部分，是由Closing Date和你的贷款的具体情况决定的，跟任何人无关。
如此看来，并不存在中国经纪骗人的问题，因为每个Broker都是收四，五百块钱而已，其他的钱都没有进经纪人的腰包。但为什么却给人中国经纪骗人的印象呢？这是因为有的经纪人摸透了人的心理，他知道客人愿意找费用低的，所以他故意将费用说低。这样做的目的是为了抢到Case，他并不会因此多拿钱。实际上，费用在你选定了银行和Title company, Closing Date后是固定的。每家银行收费是个定数，Title company的费用会有一些出入。
所以，大家不用把精力放在费用上。但Builder和网上贷款时要小心费用。我的一个客户一月份在网上做的refinance，当时我们的利率没法跟网上报的比，就让他去作了，结果费用由开始保证的３０００多增加到６０００多,还有Impound, 可由于当时利率已升高只好close，现在
后悔莫及。另外象作者说的到最后关头挑毛病不close的也时有发生，因为如果市场利率走高，而他们的贷款多半是要卖掉，他们赚不到钱当然不想close deal.
２。关于appraisal fee
一般都会要求客人先付。原因就不用说了。
Monday, March 5, 2007
房地产周期的畅想
人都说，房地产有周期的，上升期比下降期长的。周期有的说八年，有的说十年。还有一个说法，房地产市场是local的，也就是说每个大城市都是一个独立的市场。
如果这样，假设周期是八年，上升期五年，下降期三年。如果可以找到四个相互独立的市场，每个市场周期间隔两年，那么，就可以在每个市场里只呆两年，永远呆在上升期里。
不要想在任何一个市场一开始就进去，到最高点出来；神仙都做不到这一点。只要求在一个市场已经开始上升一年或更多一点进去，然后两年后就出来。
要做到这一点，就要有比较大的资金，有时间上的自由，可以到处走看市场。选出四个截然不同的市场是最大的关键。
如果这样，假设周期是八年，上升期五年，下降期三年。如果可以找到四个相互独立的市场，每个市场周期间隔两年，那么，就可以在每个市场里只呆两年，永远呆在上升期里。
不要想在任何一个市场一开始就进去，到最高点出来；神仙都做不到这一点。只要求在一个市场已经开始上升一年或更多一点进去，然后两年后就出来。
要做到这一点，就要有比较大的资金，有时间上的自由，可以到处走看市场。选出四个截然不同的市场是最大的关键。
Friday, March 2, 2007
Is Real Estate a Good Investment? A mathematic model
Since real estate is a very hot investment sector, I try to figure out if the investment is mathematically viable. Here is the assumption I used in my model:
• Home cost of P dollars ($200,000)
• Yearly interest rate r (6.5%) fixed over N years (30)
• Down pay rate (10%)
• Marginal income tax rate rIT (30%)
• Property tax rate rPT (assumed to be 1.5% of P),
• Yearly maintenance cost rate & insurance rate rM (assumed to be 1.5% of P)
Therefore, the monthly cost of home ownership is approximately ($1,187) by using following formula:
Cost = ((r/(1-(1+r)^(-N)+ rPT)*(1- rIT)+ rM)*P/12
Let us also assume
• 90% of the monthly cost is covered by renting income
• cost increases 2.5% annually
• renting income increases 2.5% as well
• Mortgage application fee 1%
• Attorney fee: 0.5%
• Agent fee when you sell: 6%
Here comes the big assumption, annual house market appreciation rate. Since historical data showed long term real return for real estate is about 0.7%, so I assume the nominal return rate is 3.5%.
By plugging in all this number and assume you sell the house in year 10, the calculated IRR is 15%!!!
I also run Monte Carlo simulation. In majority of the simulations, 10-Year IRR is positive, even when the annual appreciation rate is 0%. Of course the key is: NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF HOUSE PRICE during the holding period.
So I guess the conclusion is Real estate is a good investment in long run based on the fact you need spend time and energy to manage and take some risk. However, is now the right time to jump in?
• Home cost of P dollars ($200,000)
• Yearly interest rate r (6.5%) fixed over N years (30)
• Down pay rate (10%)
• Marginal income tax rate rIT (30%)
• Property tax rate rPT (assumed to be 1.5% of P),
• Yearly maintenance cost rate & insurance rate rM (assumed to be 1.5% of P)
Therefore, the monthly cost of home ownership is approximately ($1,187) by using following formula:
Cost = ((r/(1-(1+r)^(-N)+ rPT)*(1- rIT)+ rM)*P/12
Let us also assume
• 90% of the monthly cost is covered by renting income
• cost increases 2.5% annually
• renting income increases 2.5% as well
• Mortgage application fee 1%
• Attorney fee: 0.5%
• Agent fee when you sell: 6%
Here comes the big assumption, annual house market appreciation rate. Since historical data showed long term real return for real estate is about 0.7%, so I assume the nominal return rate is 3.5%.
By plugging in all this number and assume you sell the house in year 10, the calculated IRR is 15%!!!
I also run Monte Carlo simulation. In majority of the simulations, 10-Year IRR is positive, even when the annual appreciation rate is 0%. Of course the key is: NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF HOUSE PRICE during the holding period.
So I guess the conclusion is Real estate is a good investment in long run based on the fact you need spend time and energy to manage and take some risk. However, is now the right time to jump in?
海外房屋市场和买房的一些TIPS
每每说到房价,跟贴还是挺热闹的,可见关心这事的人不少.这些年澳大利亚的房价长的是很厉害的.以前买房十几万,见过'吃糠咽菜''几年不见荤腥'的故事也不少,现在看见HALF MILLION的房子,见怪的人几乎很少了.再看看美国,利息这么低,这房价也给逼疯了.CALIFORNIA,BOSTON,NEW YORK地区,动不动就是上百万,只见'打工,打工,赚钱,赚钱,买房,买破房','这房价和工资太不成比例了',冤声一片.
对于房价和市场我是花了点时间的,(1)越是贵的地方,房价越是坚挺.越是稳定,越是还要向上涨,(2)房价每每长到于工资挂不上勾时,涨到人人叫冤时,千万别想房价会跌,唯一对于这一现象,最终的市场补偿是反映在物价上涨,工资也上涨,(3)利息低时,会把房价推上去,把尽可能多的人套进这个市场,然后人人为MORTGARGE打工,进而促进经济,相对而言,房价还是在利息高时,比较稳定,(4)这市场在许多发达国家中已成为一个成熟的市场,它的作用就是要把人人逼入市场,只要你一入市,不管你收入多高,除了交税,还要被银行利息分去一部分的收入,收入去掉这二部分,大多数靠工资收入的家庭,剩下的就所剩无几了.但要是你不入市,那就更惨,别以为手里捏着钱高兴,你看到的只是物价房价都在涨,赚钱的速度远远赶不上房价,(5)这市场对于经济的好处是压抑了社会的闲散资金,使人人手里都没闲钱,人人都背一身债,银行的风险被千家万户的MORTGAGE花解到几乎为零,造成一个看上去富而不奢侈的社会,别以为老外不想奢侈,我们不想奢侈,实在是无奈啊(而中国经济中恰恰是缺了这一环,要是中国的家家户户都背上一身MORTGAGE,我想中国的银行大概不会有坏帐了),(6)国家和税务局也深知这个奥妙,所以会从税务方面,会给大大小小的LANGLORD,各类小小的补偿.如美国的$500,000内的房产交易是不加增值税,澳大利亚对投资房的NEGATIVE GEARING,给赚工资的人提供了个税务漏洞,这么些年来,越搞越大,新加上了CAPITAL GAIN来控制它的规模,也有许多关于NEGATIVE GEARING的议论.
所以生活在国外,不管你愿意不愿意,最后一定是会被逼进这个市场的.当你不管是通过什么途径,不管你是做什么干什么的,不管你是黑道还是白道,手里有了点钱时,你一定会想到买房,而且你一定会买房.
接下来,是干什么呢?作为个人要考虑2个问题和做一件事,加起来是3点;
(1) 算钱,主要是算贷款后的还款能力.不管什么房,你首期付了后,借完钱后就是一个还款的事,只要你有能力还,最后你买下的房就是你的. 尽管你也许会算算这利息,也许心里会不平衡,银行赚走了不少你税后的钱,但看看人人都是如此,也没有什么可冤枉的.还有每当这时,权且把银行想成是你的合伙人,虽说机会是你的,但没它,你也做不成这买卖. 好了,这算法,只是基于你还MORTGAGE的能力. 如你买房前是借房,$300/WEEK的租金,这还款能力是相当于$200,00的20年的MORTGAGE(在利息7%的前提下),这种算法是对与第一次买房的人.如果是买投资房,你付了首期后,在同样的情况下,要减去出租的租金,这剩下的GAP才是你需要承担的部分. 所以,买自住的压力会比买投资压力大些.对于投资房,不管这房是多少价,基于这个GAP,简单些,只需这样算,付了10%首期后,50万的房要有 $500/WEEK的租金汇报,100万要有$1000/WEEK的回报,对于有工作的人,或是有收入的人,这留下的GAP也就是$100- 200/WEEK,不会给你造成很大压力.假如你LUCKY,租金等于或多少和MORTGAGE持平,如你买了这种房,这房就差不多是等于送给你的,而且过几年,房价上去后,租金上去后,你还有赚.
(2)选地区和看房,就是LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION的问题了. 这是人人都知道的事.但对于中国人,特别是从国内出来的,要注意对于缺点的宽容度,一个房子你想在一个适合于你的好价位拿下来,是不可能没有缺点和问题. 一个没有任何问题和缺点的房子是不可能在你要的价位上的.另外还有看房的问题,容易被别人的看法左右,也容易被家里人的喜好程度影响. 所以,最好要自己和家人,做下来,想一想,你究竟要什么?把你想要的内容一一列下来,另外有那些缺点你能够容忍,因为有些缺陷会降低你的经济压力,也把这些因素一一列下.一一列下的好处是当你看房时不会受情绪和外界影响,还有一个好处是可以避免和家人冲突,因为事先你们已定好了你们对不足的宽容程度.
(3) 最后BENG!,就是搞定.这在国外一般有二个途径,一是通过PRIVATE SALE,二是AUCTION.不管是什么行情,什么价,也许你做了大量的市场,也许你根本不知道这市场,你一定要相信成交价就是市场价,任何想象的价格都只是GUESS,要知道THE BEST GUESS STILL IS GUESS这个道理.找到个自己喜欢的房子不容易,最后的这个'BENG',是关键中的关键,否则前功弃尽.我觉得许多人买房子时,对市场有太多的 SUSPECTIONS,另外还有太多的侥幸心理.其实自己要清晰自己所要的东西比什么都重要.自己喜欢的一定要明确自己的OFFER,并且要对自己的 OFFER有信心.买,有二个方法和途径,所以这OFFER也是不一样的. 对于PRIVATE SALE,可以直接和AGENT谈,什么OFFER是可以接受的OFFER,别去想AGENT有什么好处,他们是吃这行的,就象你打工一样,也是要靠这份工谋生的.你的OFFER在可以接受的前提下,AGENT便会和卖家周旋成交.对于AUCTION,许多人不喜欢这种方式,但我喜欢,因为买方的叫价, OFFER都是公开的,要知道成交价就是市场价这道理,会有冲动叫高的时候,但一定要知道,这个价格在一个规范化的市场里是一个非常敏感的,很少真真会高出市场价的5%的.如果决定要去AUCTION,就一定要势在必夺,否则就不要去,心理准备一定要足,做好一路朝上叫的准备.即便买下心里不高兴,也一定要想到,过十年在来看今天的价是高还是低,但在大多数的情况下,是十年一回首,想想当年还是捡了个便宜货.
希望对各位有用,反正这一套东西我用下来可以.这市场在海外是个公开的,开放的市场,谁都无法垄断它.还要知道,钱在这市场只是一个必要条件,不是充要条件,不管买房自住,还是投资, 玩的都是大势,都需要人有大气,眼光长,钱少一样玩的转,一样能赢得将来.我觉得,国内都是在炒大公司,大财团,炒世界500强,炒上火星上月亮,... 其实我们生活在国外,和我们生活息息相关的第一市场,只有一个房产市场,再大再强的公司,都于我们无关.只有这个市场,市场大,盘子大,只要下工夫,还是会从这市场中有所回报的.只要有胆略,还是可以探探这市场的深浅的,至少可以丰富生活方式,免得老是有人说国外生活枯燥.其实没有风险的日子,才是真正枯燥无味的日子.
有些不是'纸上谈兵'的体会,和有兴趣的朋友一起分享,这其中的要领,'耐心观察,捕捉机会,多谋善断,速战速决'.
对于房价和市场我是花了点时间的,(1)越是贵的地方,房价越是坚挺.越是稳定,越是还要向上涨,(2)房价每每长到于工资挂不上勾时,涨到人人叫冤时,千万别想房价会跌,唯一对于这一现象,最终的市场补偿是反映在物价上涨,工资也上涨,(3)利息低时,会把房价推上去,把尽可能多的人套进这个市场,然后人人为MORTGARGE打工,进而促进经济,相对而言,房价还是在利息高时,比较稳定,(4)这市场在许多发达国家中已成为一个成熟的市场,它的作用就是要把人人逼入市场,只要你一入市,不管你收入多高,除了交税,还要被银行利息分去一部分的收入,收入去掉这二部分,大多数靠工资收入的家庭,剩下的就所剩无几了.但要是你不入市,那就更惨,别以为手里捏着钱高兴,你看到的只是物价房价都在涨,赚钱的速度远远赶不上房价,(5)这市场对于经济的好处是压抑了社会的闲散资金,使人人手里都没闲钱,人人都背一身债,银行的风险被千家万户的MORTGAGE花解到几乎为零,造成一个看上去富而不奢侈的社会,别以为老外不想奢侈,我们不想奢侈,实在是无奈啊(而中国经济中恰恰是缺了这一环,要是中国的家家户户都背上一身MORTGAGE,我想中国的银行大概不会有坏帐了),(6)国家和税务局也深知这个奥妙,所以会从税务方面,会给大大小小的LANGLORD,各类小小的补偿.如美国的$500,000内的房产交易是不加增值税,澳大利亚对投资房的NEGATIVE GEARING,给赚工资的人提供了个税务漏洞,这么些年来,越搞越大,新加上了CAPITAL GAIN来控制它的规模,也有许多关于NEGATIVE GEARING的议论.
所以生活在国外,不管你愿意不愿意,最后一定是会被逼进这个市场的.当你不管是通过什么途径,不管你是做什么干什么的,不管你是黑道还是白道,手里有了点钱时,你一定会想到买房,而且你一定会买房.
接下来,是干什么呢?作为个人要考虑2个问题和做一件事,加起来是3点;
(1) 算钱,主要是算贷款后的还款能力.不管什么房,你首期付了后,借完钱后就是一个还款的事,只要你有能力还,最后你买下的房就是你的. 尽管你也许会算算这利息,也许心里会不平衡,银行赚走了不少你税后的钱,但看看人人都是如此,也没有什么可冤枉的.还有每当这时,权且把银行想成是你的合伙人,虽说机会是你的,但没它,你也做不成这买卖. 好了,这算法,只是基于你还MORTGAGE的能力. 如你买房前是借房,$300/WEEK的租金,这还款能力是相当于$200,00的20年的MORTGAGE(在利息7%的前提下),这种算法是对与第一次买房的人.如果是买投资房,你付了首期后,在同样的情况下,要减去出租的租金,这剩下的GAP才是你需要承担的部分. 所以,买自住的压力会比买投资压力大些.对于投资房,不管这房是多少价,基于这个GAP,简单些,只需这样算,付了10%首期后,50万的房要有 $500/WEEK的租金汇报,100万要有$1000/WEEK的回报,对于有工作的人,或是有收入的人,这留下的GAP也就是$100- 200/WEEK,不会给你造成很大压力.假如你LUCKY,租金等于或多少和MORTGAGE持平,如你买了这种房,这房就差不多是等于送给你的,而且过几年,房价上去后,租金上去后,你还有赚.
(2)选地区和看房,就是LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION的问题了. 这是人人都知道的事.但对于中国人,特别是从国内出来的,要注意对于缺点的宽容度,一个房子你想在一个适合于你的好价位拿下来,是不可能没有缺点和问题. 一个没有任何问题和缺点的房子是不可能在你要的价位上的.另外还有看房的问题,容易被别人的看法左右,也容易被家里人的喜好程度影响. 所以,最好要自己和家人,做下来,想一想,你究竟要什么?把你想要的内容一一列下来,另外有那些缺点你能够容忍,因为有些缺陷会降低你的经济压力,也把这些因素一一列下.一一列下的好处是当你看房时不会受情绪和外界影响,还有一个好处是可以避免和家人冲突,因为事先你们已定好了你们对不足的宽容程度.
(3) 最后BENG!,就是搞定.这在国外一般有二个途径,一是通过PRIVATE SALE,二是AUCTION.不管是什么行情,什么价,也许你做了大量的市场,也许你根本不知道这市场,你一定要相信成交价就是市场价,任何想象的价格都只是GUESS,要知道THE BEST GUESS STILL IS GUESS这个道理.找到个自己喜欢的房子不容易,最后的这个'BENG',是关键中的关键,否则前功弃尽.我觉得许多人买房子时,对市场有太多的 SUSPECTIONS,另外还有太多的侥幸心理.其实自己要清晰自己所要的东西比什么都重要.自己喜欢的一定要明确自己的OFFER,并且要对自己的 OFFER有信心.买,有二个方法和途径,所以这OFFER也是不一样的. 对于PRIVATE SALE,可以直接和AGENT谈,什么OFFER是可以接受的OFFER,别去想AGENT有什么好处,他们是吃这行的,就象你打工一样,也是要靠这份工谋生的.你的OFFER在可以接受的前提下,AGENT便会和卖家周旋成交.对于AUCTION,许多人不喜欢这种方式,但我喜欢,因为买方的叫价, OFFER都是公开的,要知道成交价就是市场价这道理,会有冲动叫高的时候,但一定要知道,这个价格在一个规范化的市场里是一个非常敏感的,很少真真会高出市场价的5%的.如果决定要去AUCTION,就一定要势在必夺,否则就不要去,心理准备一定要足,做好一路朝上叫的准备.即便买下心里不高兴,也一定要想到,过十年在来看今天的价是高还是低,但在大多数的情况下,是十年一回首,想想当年还是捡了个便宜货.
希望对各位有用,反正这一套东西我用下来可以.这市场在海外是个公开的,开放的市场,谁都无法垄断它.还要知道,钱在这市场只是一个必要条件,不是充要条件,不管买房自住,还是投资, 玩的都是大势,都需要人有大气,眼光长,钱少一样玩的转,一样能赢得将来.我觉得,国内都是在炒大公司,大财团,炒世界500强,炒上火星上月亮,... 其实我们生活在国外,和我们生活息息相关的第一市场,只有一个房产市场,再大再强的公司,都于我们无关.只有这个市场,市场大,盘子大,只要下工夫,还是会从这市场中有所回报的.只要有胆略,还是可以探探这市场的深浅的,至少可以丰富生活方式,免得老是有人说国外生活枯燥.其实没有风险的日子,才是真正枯燥无味的日子.
有些不是'纸上谈兵'的体会,和有兴趣的朋友一起分享,这其中的要领,'耐心观察,捕捉机会,多谋善断,速战速决'.
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